While I don't think Microsoft has fully opened the valve, we are starting to see some downloads from the European browser choice program.
Unlike one of the other browser vendors on the ballot, we're not seeing a tripling of downloads. Then again, I wouldn't expect that given our baseline of 2M downloads per day.
We did just cross the 100M Firefox 3.6 downloads. Those are all manual downloads because we haven't turned on the "prompted update" system yet. When you're getting a couple million downloads a day, the tens or even hundreds of thousands of additional daily downloads coming from the browser choice screen don't really stand out.
Still, I hope that when Microsoft finally opens this to all of Europe (which I don't believe they have, contrary to recent press accounts) I think we'll start to be able to see more meaningful numbers.