I'll post a full update once I can get a public server going so you all can see, but I'm please to announce that after several days of failed attempts, this afternoon I served up my first (local) live streaming theora video and am watching it in a nightly build of Firefox as we speak.
Yay!
There are several pieces to the puzzle and none of them easy or obvious for a point and click guy like me, but after much fooling around and attempting many different tools, on three different platforms, I finally found a combination that I think will work.
I'll do a full write-up soon.