Just to be clear, 500M downloads doesn't mean 500M users. Some users download more than once. Some users deploy multiple installs from a single download. And, many people who download don't become regular users.
Nevertheless, it is an impressive milestone. What does it say about our market share or actual user base? Not much. What does it say about our community? A lot. Over 80% of Firefox users were referred to Firefox by a friend, family member, or colleague. With a marketing budget that's a fraction of a percent of that of companies Mozilla competes with, we've managed to get more downloads of Firefox than any other piece of consumer software I'm aware of.
So, what are our user numbers actually and what is our market share? I estimate that with about 50 million active daily users, that our total user base is approximately 150 million people*. As far as market share, there are a lot of people out there measuring it and they all have different numbers. At the low end, we see Firefox usage at about 17%. At the high end, we see as much as 37%. In between those, there are a range of measures, all with their own biases.
Looking at all of this data, actually, kind of squinting at it with my head cocked at just the right angle, it seems to suggest that Firefox is at about 20% market share worldwide.
So, 500M downloads, 150M users, and 20% market share. Not a bad showing for the four year old Firefox.
* we've added nearly 10M daily active users since John's post in November.
Posted by: Jamey | February 22, 2008 2:25 PM
I'm one of the guys skewing the results... but in a good way. I've probably downloaded Firefox a hundred times and installed it on at least a thousand computers over the years. Many opt to keep it and some don't, but as the years have gone on more and more people tell me their choice of web browser is Firefox.
The fact that it has done as well as it has against such an entrenched competitor is impressive, but the loyalty I gets from its users is even more so. Nobody recommends Internet Explorer -- it's just another thing that comes with Windows -- but they recommend Firefox, and I think that says a lot about its usefulness and quality.
Posted by: cobolhacker | February 23, 2008 7:25 PM
"I played around with [Firefox] a bit, but it's just another browser, and IE [6] is better," Mr Gates told me, and challenged my assertion that Firefox's 'market share' is growing rapidly. "So much software gets downloaded all the time, but do people actually use it?" he argued.
from May 9, 2005: news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4508897.stm
Yes, yes they do Bill :-)
Posted by: Limulus | February 25, 2008 3:36 PM
Asa: Don't forget that the W3Schools numbers are just for their site; I would classify them as a Firefox HostSpot. Consider also WebReference as another HotSpot, showing Firefox at nice high levels: www.webreference.com/stats/browser.html
For global estimates, Onestat seems to have a low-end estimate for Firefox ~14%
www.onestat.com/html/aboutus_pressbox57-firefox-mozilla-ie-browser-market-share.html
while W3Counter has it double that, ~28%
www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php
Contrast also the Onestat European numbers (lower) to the XitiMonitor Numbers (higher)
www.xitimonitor.com/en-us/browsers-barometer/firefox-december-2007/index-1-2-3-117.html
e.g.:
Germany: 27%/34%
France: 15%/26%
UK: 12%/17%
Clearly, each of these companies are looking at the web from a different angle. Nailing down Jello is a good description for trying to pick the right numbers ;)
Posted by: Limulus | February 26, 2008 11:06 AM
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Posted by: MAVERICK | March 6, 2008 6:25 AM
Congratulations
P.S. it was totally awesome talking to you on the phone today Asa.
Sorry I cut you off so many time's I had so much to say ;)