open source metrics @ mozilla
I could have sworn that I already linked to the Mozilla Metrics blog but I don't see it in the archives so here it is again.
The data and analysis that I'm most excited about right now is outlined at the Firefox's Funnel Factor blog post.
Our crack team of metricists, (metricians?) Ken Kovash and Alex Polvi, have been studying the Firefox adoption process and have determined that we have an adoption rate of 28%. So, for every 100 users that successfully downloaded Firefox, 28 of them were Firefox users 30 days later.
If this rate has been constant and the fall-off after 30 days is negligible (two big ifs,) then our 445M downloads so far would yield about 125M active Firefox users.
But what about other sources besides downloads from mozilla.com? The 5-10M(?) Linux desktops that shipped with Firefox as the default browser? The downloads that come from download.com or tucows.com? Bittorrent? Other sources?
reactions, thoughts, comments, etc.
Givin each copy of Firefox the power of automatically registring and get a unique id, and reporting with that id in every session would be a way of better telling that.
Posted by: Matias Jose | November 24, 2007 10:58 PM
Does Google still offer that program where they give webmasters $1 for each visitor to their site that installs Firefox + Google Toolbar? I wonder if the Firefox download numbers are being inflated (and thus making the retention rate seem lower than it really is) by people trying to scam that system, say by sending bots to their sites and registering fake downloads/installs.
Posted by: James Napolitano | November 24, 2007 11:46 PM
James, this is only measuring downloads from Mozilla.com, so no the Fx+Toolbar downloads from Google should not have an effect on these numbers.
Posted by: Robert Helmer | November 25, 2007 1:58 AM
I did not know there were bittorrent sources for Mozilla products.
Posted by: Fred | November 25, 2007 2:45 AM
Does nightly users (ftp downloaders) count on this metric? I don't think so, but not sure.
Think about all the universities and companies who roll out one copy for several thousands users.
Posted by: hansen | November 25, 2007 11:03 AM
Matias Jose: That's absolutely the worst idea I've ever read anywhere. Giving unique tracking ID to all Firefox copies would instantly (overnight) fill web with reports of "firefox tracks what you do!" and "firefox spies you!". It would destroy FF in 1-2 days. The reputation would be gone forever. You'd sunk down to the lowest scum in the internet.
I've myself used Mozilla (first suite, then firefox) nearly six years now. If FF gets a unique ID, I'd replace all Firefox installations I have with Opera instantly. I don't like being tracked. Sure, count the downloads, but that's all I'm allowing you to do. And once FF goes, it stays gone.
Posted by: Nathan | November 25, 2007 1:15 PM
@nathan
i believe songbird has some sort of user metrics report system when you first install.. i haven't seen any complaints. although the metrics report is optional.
Posted by: a | November 25, 2007 7:37 PM
Matias Jose: You wouldn't need a 'unique user id'. The browser would be clever enough to know only to send a 'I've installed myself and I'm still being used 30 days later' signal to Mozilla.
Posted by: Alex | November 25, 2007 11:28 PM
28% is an excellent number for adoption rate IMHO, for something that can be easily and freely downloaded.
But for 'active users', shouldn't counting the number of automatic 'check for update' requests give you a good idea of the number of active Firefox installations overall?
Posted by: Rijk | November 26, 2007 5:15 AM
I'm against any sort of "phone home" or "report back to base" functionality in software that isn't explicitly turned on. Mentioning it in the EULA isn't, or shouldn't be, sufficiently explicit.
Posted by: John Smith | November 26, 2007 7:14 PM